Residential property prices to fall 8-10% more in 2009

Despite popular belief, residential property prices are expected to fall by another 8-10% in 2009 till they stabilise in 2010.
Residential property rates declined by 18-20 per cent in March this year, from the highs in the first half of 2008. Despite this drop, homebuyers adopted a 'wait and watch' policy, and this trend is likely to continue through 2009, as per the latest report by CRISIL Research.



Owing to improved affordability, steady economic growth and greater liquidity, the residential segment will witness a speedier recovery compared to the retail and commercial segments. Lease rentals are not expected to stabilise till another two years. Mr. Sudhir Nair, Head, CRISIL Research says, “Demand in the commercial and retail segment is likely to remain under stress for the next two years owing to excess supply and weak off take.”

Amongst the 10 cities covered by CRISIL Research, Pune, Bengaluru and Mumbai have witnessed the steepest correction in capital values compared to the highs seen in the first half of 2008. Capital values in NCR had already started stabilising during the first half of 2008 even as the upward trend continued in other cities. Hence, capital values in NCR declined by only 18 per cent, which is relatively low compared to other cities. The report covers more than 400 areas across 88 micro markets in 10 cities--Ahmedabad, Bengaluru, Chandigarh, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kochi, Kolkata, Mumbai-MMR, NCR and Pune.

It is believed that lower home loan interest rates as well as better job security would help to revive demand in the residential segment. Hence, capital values are likely to stabilise in the first half of 2010, and increase during the second half of the year.