Good News Real estate market could recover by Diwali

After a long time we are witnessing real estate developers taking pride in reducing or slashing rates in Mumbai, Thane and Navi Mumbai to encash on
the existing demand in the real estate market.

The good deals may be offered for a few weeks or for the first ten properties or for a killer deal for a time-bound two days or similar schemes but yes, the writing is clear on the wall that the willingness to connect with the "real" pricing has dawned on the developers to sell at reduced prices to encourage more and more sales.

With the new UPA government there are a lot of hopes and it will be interesting to see how the next few months unfold for the property market. We still need a great deal of transparency to be infused in the way we deal in the property market.

The sales teams in the builder/ developer offices are at their all-time creative best with sales tactics. This is also a good sign and a dawning that if the wheel stops there will be a crisis of sorts of the kind witnessed earlier this year, when sales plummeted big time.

They now understand clearly that with buyers unwilling to relent on unrealistic pricing, there is an even greater need to price competitively, maybe with a lower profit margin, than holding on to the price and project as the interest meter runs. The mantra for developers in the present times, I guess, is to be aware of the markets (realistic demand and supply) and the competition, which the buyers know today.

For a buyer to understand the market more clearly before making a decision, he/she must understand at which juncture the market is hovering; also, with fresh developments in the political arena, what the impact will be in coming months. An important point to note would be that, yes, there has been a correction up to 15 to 30% already in the market post December 2008 and prices have come to September 2008 levels, which were already high in any case and up on account of the festival demand which happens nearly post monsoons by default.

After a correction, slowdown, or a 30% reduction, one should not expect the markets to gallop again, but the next couple of years at least will be stable, as after a correction you cannot go up again quickly. With a stable government we can expect more rational policies but a stock market kind of jerk in prices will be unrealistic in the property prices and may be termed speculative. Let us be sensible for once; just when things have just started moving a little, let us not think of killing the golden hen and taking out all eggs at one time.

A good 2BHK in the suburbs is not less than Rs 6 to 8 million, which is not cheap by any standards. Our city still does not have the appropriate
infrastructure to support high pricing in the suburbs, especially with connectivity issues , and with a lot of developers under a liquidity crunch it is essential to send out the right signals. The buyer today is under tremendous pressure even when it comes to documentation and with many banks tightening the belts on approvals , it is essential to invest in a project which offers 100% complete paperwork.

All of us know that with the archaic legal systems we live in, there are always loose ends somewhere and this is one area all developers should focus on. Nearly 78% of buyers in today's market would opt for a loan to procure the new property and most would prefer a loanto-value ratio (LTV) of around 80-85%, which typically means that if the title is not clear and transparency of the paperwork is missing, the deal will not happen.

The uncertainty and fear factor still weighing heavily on a buyer's mind gets manifested in the fact that 59% of respondents on a survey would like to buy only a ready possession property or a property nearing completion as past trends have shown delays in construction.

With the current economic slowdown, they are more concerned today about possession timelines. Only about 20% home buyers are keen to invest in properties at their launch stage at attractive prices, and even that, only of selective developers who have a track record. This is as per a survey that a leading bank conducted after the recent Thane exhibition. The developers need to work very hard to win this confidence.

In order to capture the client who is looking to buy a home in today's market conditions, one should look at microanalysis on both demand and supply first. The maximum demand is in the price range of Rs 40 lakh, going up to the Rs 1 crore bracket, and that too, for ready-to-move into homes.

Looking at the buyer's mind, if he is looking at Malad, he wants to try to find a house in Andheri, or similarly, if he is looking at Navi Mumbai, he wants to experience Chembur or Ghatkopar or any other location where he can compromise and get it within a particular price range.

Of course, when he is out on the field he wants to know if rates have bottomed out in the location, project or surrounding location. This typically means a delayed decision of the informed buyer; from the time he puts together his first potential shortlist, it can easily be a period of a month or two. If builders start telling them they will increase prices, they will go to the nearest competitor. In a buyer's market, they know they can pit one against the other.

The coming weeks will be interesting, with stock markets climbing, recession clouds disappearing and the hopes that the new UPA government will bring in fresh policies for the housing industry. With all this, there is a strong chance that there may be a great deal of movement during the Diwali period.

The cycle had slowed down in Diwali 2008 and can come back with a bang September 2009 onwards, but this depends on prices being stable. It may be an opportune moment through the end of the year to sell as much and increase liquidity and focus on new projects. So, let us hope with this competition, the buyer encashes.

The Views Expressed are Personal and not guaranteed